The Problem of Sanctions Relief: Public Opinion on Achieving a US–China Trade Deal

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Under revision

This paper expands upon the concept of audience costs in the context of economic disputes. Using multiple survey experiments in China and the US, we examine public opinion regarding a bilateral agreement following the prolonged trade war. We find that both Chinese and US respondents differentiated between negotiated settlements conditional on US sanctions relief. Chinese respondents showed higher approval of their government's conceding to the US when the US agreed to immediate sanctions relief in return. In contrast, US respondents favored their government maintaining existing sanctions until China delivered on its promised concessions. We also identify several common mediating mechanisms that affected respondents' calculations, including government consistency and perceived fairness. We conclude that state leaders can leverage sanctions relief as a hand-tying device, even if citizens might not fully grasp the intricacies of such arrangements.